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Weve finally made it to the weekend of the trade deadline, where every hug sets Twitter buzzing with a trade rumor. Keep that in mind with David Ortiz?--?its just what he does. With the weather really heating up, teams schedule fewer day games on Saturday, so were looking at a truncated, four-game afternoon slate. The pitching on the evening docket lacks an ace, but for some, that makes DFS more fun, if not challenging. We accept that challenge, so to help you make sense of a tricky Saturday, here are the Daily Notes.PitchingEliteRegression is a funny thing. To be clear, this is regression in the statistical sense where something out of the players control regresses to the mean. Its unfortunate regression has morphed into meaning play worse since that clouds the message when regression is discussed in the practical sense.Jake Arrietas 2015 Cy Young campaign was buoyed by an eight percent home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB), well below the league average. Its generally accepted that all hurlers will cluster around an 11 percent mark. If youre below, you likely incurred some good luck, tempered by the park factor of your home park.This season, through June 22, Arrieta allowed just three homers on a five percent HR/FB. Since then, he has surrendered five long balls on the heels of a 19 percent HR/FB clip, raising his seasonal level to 9 percent HR/FB. Theres nothing wrong with Arrieta; hes simply the victim of some regression with respect to home run rate.Well, Arrietas walk rate is up from last season, but if his 2016 homers allowed were more evenly distributed over the past four months, no one would be concerned. The bottom line is if youre in a seasonal league with Arrieta as your ace, theres nothing to worry about. This doesnt guarantee a stellar stretch run, only that theres nothing in the numbers to lose sleep over.On Saturday, Arrieta is the clear top DFS option on a short slate, despite facing a Seattle Mariners squad that handles righties effectively. It just seemed more important to spend a little time discussing the Cubs righty in a big-picture sense, based on some of the concerns expressed by his owners in traditional leagues.SolidLeading off the solid tier may be a surprise, but it shouldnt be if you check the numbers and consider the matchup. Anthony DeSclafani may not have a dominant strikeout rate, but he doesnt beat himself with the walk and is facing a weak San Diego Padres club that offers strikeout upside with a 25 percent whiff rate against right-handers. The Cincinnati Reds righty is in play for all DFS formats.Scott Kazmirs ranking may also look oddly high, but this is another case of a favorable opponent driving the score. On the road versus southpaws, the Arizona Diamondbacks carry a league average weighted on base average (wOBA) along with a whopping 27 percent strikeout rate under those conditions, the second highest mark in the league. This feeds right into the Los Angeles Dodgers leftys impressive 9.6 K/9. In addition, the Snakes are among the least patient squad in the league which helps ease the risk that sometimes Kazmir struggles with control. This combination renders the left-hander as a nice GPP option.Justin Verlander is another candidate for those looking to take down a DFS tournament. The Detroit Tigers host the powerful but strikeout-prone Houston Astros in Comerica Park. The venue is a little more hitter-friendly than perceived but its still a better place to pitch than Minute Maid Park. The veteran right-hander is having a strong July, allowing two runs or fewer in all five starts, tossing at least seven frames in three.Pedestrian middle relievers may have more wins than Julio Teheran, who has managed a scant three victories for the punchless Atlanta Braves despite pitching to an impressive 2.71 ERA. Perhaps Saturday will bring win No. 4 as the right-hander draws the equally offensively-challenged Philadelphia Phillies. Jeremy Hellickson is scheduled to oppose Teheran, but is allegedly on the trading block which would benefit Teheran as the replacement would certainly be a downgrade. Teheran is already in play for DFS. If Hellickson is scratched, the spot is even better.Continuing the theme of high-strikeout potential, Jaime Garcia leads the St. Louis Cardinals into South Beach for a date with the Miami Marlins. The Fish fan at a 23 percent pace versus southpaws, adding Garcia to the growing list of GPP candidates.Why stop now? Jameson Taillon takes the hill in Miller Park to challenge the Milwaukee Brewers and their bloated 26 percent whiff rate versus righties. The Pittsburgh Pirates rookie right-hander has tossed six frames his last three outings -- fanning 16 over those 18 stanzas -- so hes capable of taking advantage. Adding intrigue to this contest is Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun, who?are potential hug recipients, which would weaken an already soft lineup.There are a few more hurlers in the solid tier but theyre not set up as well for DFS action. If you have questions on anyone not featured, please post your query in the comments or send a Tweet to @ToddZola.StreamersDespite sporting a 2.25 ERA over his last six outings, Hellickson is owned in only 41 percent of ESPN leagues. Hes not especially dominant with 26 punchouts in those 38 frames, but hes not hurting himself with only five walks. If you can get him out of your lineup in the event hes traded, Hellickson is in play against the anemic Atlanta Braves.Theres some risk since the Colorado Rockies hit righties decently even on the road, and have added a lefty in David Dahl, but if you need a late-week win, Bartolo Colon is in play.Those waiting for the complete turnaround from Drew Smyly appear to be facing disappointment. However, the New York Yankees dont hit lefties very well and are incurring a big park downgrade in Tropicana Field, so the Tampa Bay Rays?southpaw is in play for this home affair.Facing Smyly is Nathan Eovaldi, so if you need some strikeouts, the Yankees righty is a solid choice facing a Rays club that whiffs at a 24 percent clip when facing a right-hander.AvoidWeve got a trio of arms registering a projected Game Score of 45 or below that are automatic avoids in Reynaldo Lopez, Yovani Gallardo and Martin Perez. Of course, your team situation trumps the score, so if using one of these risks is necessary to win, do what you have to do. Additionally, Tommy Milone against the Chicago White Sox and Hector Santiago facing the Boston Red Sox look to be in for a long day, or an early shower.HittingIt seems to be all or nothing with the Boston Red Sox. On paper, Saturday sets up to be an all-in affair with southpaw Hector Santiago on the bump in Angel Stadium. Even in a venue that suppresses homers, Santiago has allowed 12 long balls in 51 frames. Granted, hes been throwing better lately, but that feeds into the hit-or-miss nature of the Red Sox in general. Mookie Betts and Dustin Pedroia will be in their usual table-setting spots, enjoying the platoon bump along with Xander Bogaerts in the three-hole. Then it gets tricky, as you need to choose between Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez. This looks like a spot to go with the platoon edge in Ramirez, though Big Papi has hit lefties well, thus, is a viable play that can even be termed contrarian.The Pittsburgh Pirates are beginning to get rolling, and with a nice park upgrade in Miller Park, theyre in play versus righty Chase Anderson of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Bucs are especially solid as a contrarian stack since theyre mostly right-handed. John Jaso and Gregory Polanco are the standard options since they swing lefty at the top of the order. Its using Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Jung Ho Kang that afford the stealth differentiation from other entries.The Kansas City Royals are thrilled to have Lorenzo Cain back, inserting him into the familiar three-hole where hell have the platoon advantage over Martin Perez as the defending World Series champions visit Arlington. Alcides Escobar and Cheslor Cuthbert are strong plays, especially in cash action. If youre looking to stack Royals, Kendrys Morales and Salvador Perez are the choices with more power potential.Most likely to hit a home run: Joey GalloExactly half of the slates 30 scheduled starters sport a HR/9 of 1.4 or greater. If the balls arent flying out of the yard on Saturday, theres something amiss. Of the bevy of possible culprits, Ian Kennedy will take the ball in hot and humid Globe Life Park which does no favors for his 2.1 HR/9. Lets give the nod to the kid that swings so hard in case he hits the ball, and call on Gallo to do the honors.Most likely to steal a base: Nori AokiDespite the extended dont worry treatment extended to Arrieta, one thing he has never done well is control the running game. Aoki is back on top of the Seattle Mariners lineup, and while hes only 4-for-11 on the season when attempting thievery, he has seen Arrieta enough to take advantage. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Jersey . "It doesnt get any better than that," Giambi said. "Im speechless." The Indians are roaring toward October. Giambi belted a two-run, pinch-hit homer with two outs in the ninth inning to give Cleveland a shocking 5-4 win over the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday night, keeping the Indians up with the lead pack in the AL wild-card race. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Blue Jays Jersey . Ouellette, from Montreal, already has three Olympic gold medals since joining the team in 1999. http://www.bluejaysonline.com/blue-jays-joe-carter-jersey/ . Clarke was injured while practicing on the Doha Golf Club range after the pro-am on Tuesday. The Northern Irishman arrived at the course on Wednesday hoping to start, but after hitting a few balls on the practice putting green Clarke advised officials he was not fit to play. Jack Morris Blue Jays Jersey . The International Olympic Committee released the official list of bid cities on Friday after the deadline for applications had passed. The candidates -- all previously announced in their own countries -- are: Almaty, Kazakhstan; Beijing; Krakow, Poland; Lviv, Ukraine; Oslo, Norway; and Stockholm. Clay Buchholz Jersey .J. -- Marshawn Lynch said Thursday it will be good to get back to football after the Seattle quiet talking running back wrapped up his final mandatory media session of Super Bowl week. Test No. 1 - Debut century at Nagpur One hundred and two cricketers have made a century on Test debut, including ten Englishmen since the Second World War. But few have given such definitive proof of their poise and purpose as Cook, Englands emergency replacement on the tour of India in 2005-06. After Marcus Trescothicks breakdown on the eve of the first Test, and at the age of 21 and with no acclimatisation whatsoever, Cook brushed off the effects of 24-hour, multi-transfer, journey from Antigua to Nagpur to make 60 and 104 not out. All told, he batted for nine and a half hours in the match against an India attack boasting two of their greatest spinners in Anil Kumble and Harbhajan Singh.Test No. 6 - Maiden home Test hundred Trescothicks return in the summer of 2006 forced Cook to bed in at No. 3 in the short term, but he scarcely missed a beat in his first full season as an England batsman. At Lords in May, he missed out on his second Test century when he fell for 89 against Sri Lanka. But two months later, he made no mistake at the same venue, etching his name on the honours board for the first of what is now four occasions and counting. For good measure, he followed up with his third century, 127, in the next match at Old Trafford.Test No. 12 - First Ashes hundred If India had been a steep learning curve, then it was nothing compared to the winter of 2006-07, when Cook was thrust into the front line to withstand Australias Ashes vengeance mission. Restored to the top of the order, he encountered Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne still smarting from the events of 2005, and hell-bent on setting the record straight before waltzing into retirement. Unsurprisingly, he struggled, particularly outside off stump where his judgment was challenged mercilessly by the metronomic brutality of McGrath and Stuart Clark. But, with the Ashes all but surrendered as England chased 557 in the second innings at Perth, Cook knuckled down on the eve of his 22nd birthday to make 116 from 290 balls. It couldnt save the day in the short term, but it laid a notable marker for events further down the line…Test No. 24 - Face-saving hundred in Galle Things would get worse before they got much better for Englands chastened cricketers. A home series loss against India was swiftly followed by a capitulation in Sri Lanka where, with the series level going into the third Test at Galle, they collapsed to 81 all out in reply to the home sides 499, and inevitable defeat. Nevertheless, Cooks bloodymindedness came bubbling to the fore in the follow-on, as he dug in against Muttiah Muralitharan to make a six-and-a-half hour 118. It wasnt enough to impress certain members of Englands travelling support, who draped a banner over the walls of the historic Galle Fort to declare England: Hang Your Heads in Shame. But Cook, at least, was able to fly home to celebrate his 23rd birthday with his own held high.Test Nos. 25-36 - The summer of sixties By the end of 2008, it was clear that Cook was a prodigy with purpose. In New Zealand in March he had become the youngest England batsman to reach 2000 Test runs (at the age of 23 years and two months) but for the rest of that year he seemed to hit something of a plateau - in the entire calendar year, he made eight fifties in 21 innings (an impressive effort), but had been unable to convert any of them to three figures. With scores of 60, 61, 60, 60, 76, 67, 52 and 50, it was time to turn to his mentor Graham Gooch, with whom he began working on the technical changes that he believed he needed to take his game to the next level.Test No. 43 - Wisden Trophy regained Cook broke his centuries drought with an eighth Test hundred against West Indies in Bridgetown, but given that the match had featured 1349 runs across its first two innings, including 291 for Ramnaresh Sarwan, his second-innings game-killer wasnt much to write home about. Of greater significance, however, was his career-best 160 at Chester-le-Street two months later. After Englands shock surrendering of the Wisden Trophy in the Caribbean, courtesy of their 51 all out in the first Test at Sabina Park, Cooks innings set up a pummelling innings win, and a 2-0 series victory, against a dispirited opposition.Test No. 50 - Innings win in Durban Cook played a low-key role in Englands home Ashes win - his most significant contribution was a first-day 95 in the second Test when, in harness with Andrew Strauss, he took full toll of Mitchell Johnsons stage fright to set up Englands first win against Australia at Lords for 75 years. But in Durban later that year, he was back to his obdurate best. Fresh from celebrating his 25th birthday, Cook dropped anchor with 118 from 263 balls, setting the stage for the coming of age of his team-mate, Ian Bell. England declared on 574 for 9, before routing South Africa for 133 in their second innings.Test No. 53 - Captains best 173 If there was any doubt that Cook was Englands anointed man, then the tour of Bangladesh in 2010 dispelled it once and for all. With Strauss taking a sabbatical ahead of Englands Ashes defence in Australia, Cook was tasked with leading England in his absence, on a potentially awkward campaign against an ever-improving opposition. He set the tone with a brace of 60s in the three-match ODI series (he was recalled as captain for that leg as well…) then laid down his marker by milking Bangladeshs spin-dominant attack for 173 in the first Test in Chittagong. A week later, he had wrapped up a clean sweep in all five internationals by anchoring Englands run-chase in Dhaka with 109 not out.Test No. 59 - Last-chance saloon at The Oval Cook, famously, has missed just one Test match in his entire career, and none for more than a decade since a stomach bug denied him a third cap on his maiden tour of India in 2006. But that record would surely have been interrupted but for this show of defiance against Pakistan at The Oval in 2010. All summer long, Cook had been hounded by the relentless pace, movement and accuracy of Mohammads Amir and Asif, and was braced for the drop after making 6 in the first innings of the third Test. But then he decided to throw caution to the wind, and cast aside the tinkerings that had left him so vulnerable outside off stump. I wasnt going to die wondering, he said afterwards.Tests No. 61, 62 and 65 - 517 for 1 and all that In the build-up to a seismic Ashes tussle in the winter of 2010-11, Australias focus had been entirely on one man. Kevin Pietersen was front and centre of their strategies as they sought to avenge Englands victory in the 2009 campaign; but hardly a breath of interest had been wasted on an opening batsman who, up to that point, had scored fewer than 500 ruuns in ten Ashes Tests, at a distinctly mediocre average of 26.dddddddddddd1. But Cook made it his business to punish Australias oversight, racking up 766 runs in a 3-1 series triumph, including three vast hundreds. The biggest of the lot also doubles as his defining performance - an invincible innings of 235 not out in the cavernous hostility of the Gabba that turned the momentum of the series on its head. By the time he fell for 148 in the second Test at Adelaide, Cook had batted for 1053 minutes and 383 runs between dismissals, and an entire nation was sick to the teeth of his implacable leave outside off stump.Test No. 71 - The Edgbaston grand-daddy Notwithstanding his heroics Down Under, Cook was soon back to the grind of an English pre-season, out on dawn runs in the woods in Chelmsford, carrying a rucksack of bricks and being pursued by Gooch on a bicycle. The message from his mentor was simple but effective: when you are in the form of your life, theres even more reason to put in the extra groundwork. And his efforts would bear fruit in the third Test of Englands crushing home series win over India. Cooks returns for the rest of the summer were relatively modest, but he made his indelible mark with a 12-and-a-half hour 294 at Edgbaston, his highest Test score. He faltered, finally, in sight of what would have been Englands first triple-century since Gooch in 1990, but in making his innings a grand-daddy, he had lived another of the great mans mantras to the max. Theres a tinge of disappointment, Cook admitted, but if Im being realistic, Im absolutely thrilled.Tests No. 84, 85 and 86 - The jewel in the crown Cook may never receive more acclaim than for his performance in the 2010-11 Ashes, but his efforts in India two years later were surely his finest hour. Hed inherited a divided team following the retirement of Andrew Strauss in the summer, and having fought for the rehabilitation of Pietersen following the text-gate scandal, the opening exchanges of the first Test at Ahmedabad were ominous in the extreme. England slumped to 191 all out in reply to Indias 521 for 8 declared - Cook himself was sixth man out for 41, but thereafter he made it his mission to coax a performance from his team, come what may. His nine-and-a-half hour 176 in the follow-on wasnt enough to prevent a nine-wicket defeat, but it transformed the horizons for his side. His subsequent first-innings scores of 122 at Mumbai and 190 at Kolkata frogmarched England into an astonishing 2-1 series win - aided and abetted, of course, by world-class support from the spin pairing Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar, and inevitably, that man Pietersen.Test No. 100 - Ashes humiliation At The Oval in August 2013, Cook experienced one of the proudest moments of his career, as he led his England team to their fourth Ashes victory in five series, a 3-0 triumph that hindsight now confirms looked more emphatic than it actually was. Four months later, those scenes of jubilation must have felt like a figment of his imagination, as Australia tore back the urn with a savagery that surpassed even the trauma of 2006-07. Cooks personal nadir came in the third Test at Perth, the scene of Australias series-seizing win. In the first innings he battled through his own lack of form to make 72, his highest score for eight Tests. In the second, however, and chasing a forlorn 504 for victory, he received surely the best ball of his career - a sneering, swinging, seaming snorter from Ryan Harris that curled in, then zipped away to trim his off bail and send him on his way for a first-ball duck.Test No. 107 - Southampton sympathy There has surely never been a post-mortem to rival it. The fetid fallout from Englands Ashes whitewash contaminated every facet of the England team - not least the crassness of Pietersens sacking, which heaped cruel and unwarranted pressure on Cook, a consummate team man who had been conditioned throughout his career never to take a backwards step, and was damned if he was going to start now, even in the midst of the most barren spell of form imaginable. By the start of the third Test against India, he had gone 14 months without a century, and when his first ball of the match, from Bhuveshwar Kumar, was edged inches short of slip, followed soon after by being dropped on 15, the entire crowd feared the worst. And yet he clung to his wicket for dear life and when, by lunch, he had creaked his way to 48 not out, the crowd rose as one in acclaim. He fell eventually for 95, an apt reflection of how even his best efforts were suddenly falling short.Test No. 112 - A century at last Englands tour of the Caribbean in the spring of 2015 existed in a curious twilight zone, sandwiched between their humiliation in the World Cup (in which Cook played no part, having been dropped from the one-day squad at the eleventh hour) and the termination of Peter Moores ill-fated second coming. But Cook was grateful for the contests nonetheless, as he finally hauled a hulking great monkey off his back, and racked up the 26th Test century of his career, and his first for nearly two years. Test No. 120 - A whopper in Abu Dhabi Cooks record in Asia surpasses that of many home-grown batsman - eight centuries in 21 Tests to date, at a towering average of 60.86. And the heftiest of the lot came in the opening exchanges of Englands tour of the UAE in 2015-16, from a position of familiar peril. Pakistan had spent the first two days of the series racking up the small matter of 523 for 8 declared, with Shoaib Malik chipping in with a career-best 245. Cook, however, retorted with a 14-hour 263 - an innings so stultifyingly brilliant that it all but stole the contest. Pakistan imploded second-time around, leaving England a teasing chase of 99 in an hours worth of daylight. They were halted at 74 for 4 after 11 overs, with Cook banished to No.7 to allow his flightier colleagues to have a slog.Test No. 128 - 10,000 Test runs At 3.15pm on the fourth and final afternoon of the third Test against Sri Lanka at Chester-le-Street, Cook nudged Nuwan Pradeep off his pads with that familiar shovelling followthrough, all the way to the midwicket rope to become the first England batsman to reach 10,000 Test runs. He had kept his audience waiting for the moment - he had been within striking distance of five figures for the best part of five months - but the flamboyant gesture has never been his style. You need something tucked away to drive you to get up go running in the morning or bat in the nets with Goochy, he said. I am still hungry to achieve stuff. ' ' '